It's been an exhilarating yet tumultuous week for U.S. gamers, marked by a series of unexpected developments. The week kicked off with the much-anticipated full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, showcasing its impressive features and games. However, the excitement quickly turned to concern when the $450 price tag and $80 for Mario Kart Tour were announced, causing a stir among fans. The roller coaster continued as Nintendo announced a delay in pre-orders, citing the need to assess the impact of the Trump Administration's sweeping new tariffs on global trade.

We've explored the reasons behind the high cost of the Nintendo Switch 2 and the potential impact of these tariffs on the gaming industry in other articles. The burning question now is, what will Nintendo do next? Will the price of the Nintendo Switch 2 increase when pre-orders finally open?

Typically, when faced with such uncertainties in the gaming world, I consult a panel of expert industry analysts. While they can't predict the future with certainty, they usually provide a well-informed consensus based on data and evidence. This week alone, I've already sought their insights twice.

However, in an unprecedented turn of events, every analyst I spoke to was stumped by the current situation. Their responses were filled with guesses and heavy caveats, emphasizing the chaotic nature of the moment. No one can accurately predict the actions of Nintendo, the Trump Administration, or other stakeholders in the coming days, weeks, or months.

With this in mind, here's what the analysts had to say:

Sky-High Switch

The analysts were split in their predictions. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially thought it was too late for Nintendo to raise prices after the announcement, but the delay changed his perspective. He now believes Nintendo may have no choice but to increase prices for the system, games, and accessories.

"It is very difficult to predict, but Nintendo will likely take a few days to run simulations and then announce hikes, not only for the system itself but also games and accessories," Toto said. "I hope I am wrong, but if sustained, these sky-high tariffs leave them no choice. Would you be surprised now to see Switch 2 hit US$500 for the base model? I wouldn't. What I also want to add is this: Why on earth did Nintendo not wait for the US to fix their tariffs first and then decide on pricing during a Direct a few days later? This made no sense."

Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, also leaned towards an increase in game prices, including those from Nintendo, but emphasized the unpredictability of the situation. He noted that the tariffs' scope and impact surprised everyone, not just consumers.

"Based on the conversations I'm having, the breadth and depth of the tariffs surprised everyone, not just consumers," Piscatella said. He believes Nintendo had some assumptions about the tariffs when setting the initial price, but the actual tariffs were much higher than anticipated. "Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its US consumer pricing at this point. They have to. Some territories and regions globally have historically been subject to higher pricing than other parts of the world when it comes to video games. The US could certainly be joining that group because of these tariffs. The haphazard and chaotic nature of the tariffs and their announcement obviously has many scrambling to navigate the fallout."

Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicts an increase in hardware prices but suggests that software might not be as affected due to the dominance of digital distribution. "While physical versions might be subject to tariffs, the growing dominance and lower cost of digital distribution would likely limit any broader effect," he said. "Regarding hardware, however, the situation is more sensitive. If a 20% tariff—or any substantial increase—were to be introduced, it’s unlikely that companies like Nintendo would absorb the additional cost by cutting into their margins. In such cases, the burden could shift to consumers in the form of higher retail prices."

Holding the Line

On the other hand, some analysts believe Nintendo will try to maintain the announced price. Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, acknowledges the possibility of a price increase but thinks Nintendo will work hard to avoid it.

"I believe the volatility from the Trump tariffs was already considered in the Switch 2's $449.99 pricing," he said. "Given the first Trump administration's impact, Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has since restructured its supply chain to mitigate such geopolitical risks. Historically, Nintendo has aimed for a launch price around the $400 mark, adjusted for inflation, suggesting that the current price already reflects an anticipation of potential economic challenges stemming from ongoing trade disputes. Nevertheless, the unpredictable nature of these tariff decisions—exemplified by the recent situation in Vietnam—injects a significant amount of uncertainty into the market. This could compel Nintendo to find ways to absorb or offset additional costs, especially when initial product margins are typically narrower. While I expect Nintendo will strive to maintain the $449.99 price point, the external economic pressures may eventually force a reassessment if the trade landscape deteriorates further."

Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees that Nintendo risks consumer backlash if it raises prices further. "The extent of the tariffs and its impact on Vietnamese exports are really bad news for Nintendo," he says. "The company is now in between a rock and a hard place, having already announced the launch price. I have already suggested that the pricing would stay as announced until 2026 at the earliest but then might be adjusted if the tariffs stay in place. This delay in pre-orders is to give the company more time and it will be hoping some sort of solution will be found over the next few weeks. This is a pretty fluid situation after all. Nintendo will not want to change the price having announced it, but I think everything is on the table now. If the pricing does change, it will impact the brand and the US consumer’s view of the product at launch. I don’t think that will put off loyal fans, but it might put off broader consumers who will take a wait and see approach. That’s particularly important during its first holiday season."

Living in Unhinged Times

Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicts higher prices on both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He also referenced his earlier comments on Nintendo's strategy of offering cheaper digital editions in certain markets. "It seems the lower prices in other markets were to nudge Switch 2 buyers to digital, as I mentioned my comments to IGN about Mario Kart World’s pricing. Nintendo might have wanted to do something similar in the US, but the tariff situation is so chaotic that Nintendo was in ‘wait and see’ mode — and decided to hedge its bets to see if it needed to offset the tariffs."

Elliott painted a grim picture of the broader impact of the tariffs on the gaming industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He believes the tariffs will result in a "weaker, poorer nation," with consumers ultimately bearing the brunt of the costs. "Some manufacturers – Nintendo included – have been shifting their manufacturing to non-tariff-impacted markets," Elliott says. "And even if companies can afford to switch up (no pun intended!) their supply chains, who knows which markets will get tariffs next – as recent news supports. Companies cannot just lift up their whole supply chain and move everything to the US. It’s just not logistically possible. Under current law (I can’t believe I have to qualify this, but here we are), Trump would not be in power anymore by the time such a move would be completed – for Nintendo and other manufacturers. We are living in…there’s no other word for it...unhinged times driven by an unhinged man (and other forces). These extreme tariffs will also be bad for consumers in the US but are positive for the US administration’s populist façade. Policies that lead to higher prices for everyday people amid a cost-of-living crisis are deplorable. They're bad for gamers and the games business. I won’t comment on the real reason for the US tariffs, but ‘a much stronger, much richer nation’ is not it. What’s more, time and time again, data has shown that tariffs harm the economy. Comparative advantage is a core principle of international trade theory. Basically, consumption and economic well-being are stronger when countries focus on producing goods they can efficiently produce (at the lowest cost compared to other goods) –and trade for goods they are less efficient at producing. The trade war flies in the face of these core economic principles."

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